Who Likes Our Desires? - Research

The first stage of the study, which began on August 1, 2017, has been completed

The second stage began on September 1 and will last until October 1, 2017

At this stage, 27 wish texts from more than 20 participants were used. The final data was received from only 13 participants. This is the third study of this kind that we are conducting, we were interested in confirming previous findings and learning something new.

But still, this is only the first stage, and we would not like to reveal all the cards until the end of the study.

In short, for those who are not in the know: we asked people to write a small text describing their desired future, what will happen in the next three months.

In addition to the essay, the study participant reported a percentage of the chances that this desired future would be realized. After receiving enough essays, we asked people to rate the future of others: the odds of it happening; like it or not; and asked to guess how other people would rate the chances.

The last point is interesting. It forces a person to take an unusual position, which turns out to be very informative.

Why did we ask people to evaluate the desires of others? A number of studies have shown that other people are very often more accurate in assessing and predicting our behavior. The accuracy grows if they are our friends and acquaintances, but, firstly, we do not have such an opportunity in this study, and secondly, we decided to find out how this applies to anonymous strangers.

So what are the results

one

On average, strangers rate our chances of wanting to be 1.3 times lower than ourselves. These are average values, but we can see interesting cases where others estimate probability in the same way as the author himself, or with a huge gap in one direction or another. There is not enough data yet to understand the dependence.

But in general it is curious, you see: others downplay the chances that we will succeed. What is this - a sober view of things?

2

How we assess the likelihood of others' desires, and how we think others assess this desire, correlate almost perfectly (r =.93). A value of 1 would mean perfect correlation.

3

There was a positive correlation between likes and the average likelihood given by other people (r =.64). This is not only a correlation, but also a statistically significant relationship. The simplest explanation is that if people like your wish, they tend to increase the chances of it coming true, and vice versa. And here's an interesting fact: the likelihood given by others predicts like by 35%, and the likelihood that you think others give is 51%.

4

Most liked desire - “To take part in a needlework exhibition. Present your work at the exhibition. Improve skills in the chosen direction. Achieve success in this. " 8.4 points out of 10.

Least of all I liked the desire with the text: “I am a successful, well-known person. I have an amazing car and many joys in my life. My dreams and desires come true bright and lightning fast! A life full of vivid, fantastic impressions! " Curiously, these desires received from others the highest and lowest likelihood of being realized, respectively.

5

If you rate your desire as unlikely (for example, no more than 45%), then people give you the same amount. They do not like such desires, not even knowing what chances you have measured for him. So if you suddenly rate your desire low, do not expect a miracle - if you yourself do not believe, and others do not believe in it and they will not like it.

Thus, we first come to curious and even paradoxical conclusions.

It turns out that in order for a wish to come true, you must:

1. Love your desire.

2. Give him high chances for realization, give them honestly, from the heart.

3. Describe it so that others like it.

It would seem, what have others to do with it and why should they like my desire? If others are indeed more accurate in assessing our desires, then the persuasiveness and beauty of the description of our desire would mean both the elaboration of logic and the author's confidence. Others can see what is hidden to ourselves. After all, when many people completely sincerely tell us that we will succeed, then perhaps they see our capabilities and aspirations better than we ourselves.

So, we invite those who wish, and especially those who participated in the first stage, to continue and send us their desired future by October 1, 2017 (better earlier).

A few more notes from previous research to help you describe your desire.

Superpredictors are people who participate in predictions of political and social events on special Internet platforms and issue the most accurate predictions over the years. Experience with them has shown that the accuracy of their forecasts correlates with the detail of probability. This means that such a person will never bet just 70%, most likely, it will be 72 or 73%, because for him every percentage matters.

Perhaps this accuracy also changes the mind's attitude to prediction. Imagine that you set the probability as 65%, and the next day something good happened, and you felt that the probability increased immediately by 4%. You just feel it.

Avoid abstractness when desiring for the near future. The desire should not look like it was written by anyone at any time. It should only be yours, specific and time-bound. The more abstract it is, the less it "clings" the brain, giving it no reason to start working on it.

You are very likely to be wrong with time. It's not that scary, you just need to know it. About 60% of predicted events that will occur will happen later, about 10-20% - earlier, and only 20-30% - during the predicted time.

Include other people in your desires, or at least keep them in mind. Other people - loved ones, friends and acquaintances and those unknowns who are just about to become your friends in the future - can help you fulfill your desires, directly or indirectly.

And may your bright dreams come true!